FROM THE TERMINAL

Copper's Golden Thread flipped to rising on Monday's close, with its CCI jumping from -120 to -43. The Golden Terminal has the full CCI history behind that call for every market on this board, plus the sector rotation map. It's free: one email confirmation, no card.

Open the Golden Terminal and pull up copper →

THE LEAD

For weeks, crude oil was the one name on this board that kept its posture high while almost everything else sank. Monday it gave that up. USO fell 7.1% to $156.87. Its CCI went from 111 to -5 in one session, well under its 14-day average of 128. That flips crude's Golden Thread to red.

The money didn't leave the board entirely. Silver rose 2.2% and copper rose 1.0%, and both turned green on the close. Silver cleared its own 14-day average by a hair (-136 against -137), so call it a fresh green, not a strong one. Copper's turn was cleaner. Its CCI jumped from -120 to -43, well above its average of -65. Corn stayed green for a third straight session.

Gold gained 1.6% and climbed off Friday's 52-week low. Its thread moved from red to mixed, not green. The CCI improved from -215 to -135 but is still below its 14-day average of -122.

Here's the catch. This morning, silver futures are down 3.9% and copper is down 3.0%. Monday's greens were set on Monday's close, and today's close decides whether they hold. Richard Dennis taught his Turtles to take the signal and size for the noise. A new green on a morning like this earns a small position, not a big one.

Stocks kept sliding. The Nasdaq fell 1.1% to 25,164 and the S&P 500 fell 0.5% to 7,541. Both still carry postures near the floor, 11 and 9. Their threads moved from red to mixed only because their CCI readings stopped falling.

Underneath it all, the dollar's thread stayed red for a second day. UUP slipped 0.14% to $28.96, and its CCI fell from 9 to -62. The Supercycle Score rose from 5 to 6, out of Ludicrous Headwind and into Strong Headwind. That's a small move, and the dollar still sits at 94% of its range. But a red thread that holds for two days counts for more than one that flickers.

MACRO

The curve flattened Monday. The 2-year yield rose 3 basis points to 4.59%, and the 10-year fell 3 basis points to 4.91%. That narrowed the 2s10s spread from 38 to 32 basis points. The 30-year sits at 5.28%.

ISM manufacturing came in at 55.5 for October, above the 54.6 estimate. The prices index cooled to 75.2 from 77.9. Construction spending fell 1.9% in September, against an expected 0.4% gain.

Today is Election Day. JOLTS job openings and factory orders land at 10:00 AM ET. Wednesday brings ADP payrolls, ISM services and the Treasury's quarterly refunding plan. Friday is the October jobs report at 8:30 AM. Economists expect 65,000 jobs after 29,000 in September, with unemployment at 4.2%. Results can move the dollar overnight, so watch Wednesday's open.

POSITIONING

There's no new Commitment of Traders data until Friday at 3:30 PM ET. The last report, through October 27, had speculators net long 14,121 dollar index contracts (64.59% of positions), down from 15,044. Gold speculators were net long 186,451 contracts, their sixth straight weekly trim.

The event tell this week is the stack itself: an election tonight, the refunding plan Wednesday and payrolls Friday. Three catalysts in four days is a week to trade smaller.

FROM THE PORCH

It rained Monday. Not a shower. The storm stalled over Brevard and dropped six to ten inches on parts of the county, according to WFIT. Schools closed. Florida Tech closed. The Winn-Dixie lot at Dairy Road and Singleton in Titusville turned into one big puddle, per Florida Today's photo roundup.

The pictures told the story better than any forecast. A Porsche stalled on North Wickham Road. A Corvette stuck on US-1. Over in a Melbourne neighborhood, somebody was out in a canoe, paddling down the street like it was a normal Monday.

Anybody who grew up on the Space Coast knows that fella. He's had the canoe in the side yard for twenty years, upside down on two sawhorses, with a wasp nest under the seat. The neighbors call it junk. Monday it was the only thing on the block still going anywhere.

That's the board this morning. Crude was the Corvette. It was the fastest thing on the road for weeks, and Monday it hit the high water and stalled. Copper and silver were the canoe. Nobody's been bragging on either one. Monday they were the ones still moving.

Now, a canoe floating on Monday doesn't mean the water's gone down. Silver is off almost 4% this morning. One green day is one trip down the street.

Coke-TV will spend today on the election map. Pepsi-TV will spend it on the same map in different colors. Neither one will mention the fella in Melbourne who paddled past a stalled Porsche and waved.

Three greens, two reds, and a dollar thread red for a second day. Go vote if you haven't, keep new positions small, and keep your eyes on Friday's jobs report. - Brad

ALSO WORTH READING

The Sector Cycle Radar tracks which stock sectors are catching the money as the commodity cycle turns. It comes out every trading day, and it's free.

Get the free Sector Cycle Radar →

Data sources: live front-month futures quotes (7:00 to 7:16 AM ET), ETF-proxy and index daily closes, Treasury curve, CFTC Commitment of Traders data and the economic calendar via Financial Modeling Prep. Brevard flooding per WFIT (11/2) and Florida Today (11/2). Hero photo: Unsplash.

This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before making any investment decision.