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The S&P Claims the Board's Only Green Trend While Crude, Corn and Soybeans Confirm Red

Monday, September 28, 2026 · Data through Friday's close, September 25, 2026

Dollar and commodity prices are ETF proxy closing prices for Friday, September 25, 2026. Nasdaq and S&P 500 prices are native index levels as of Friday's close. Daily % is close to close versus Thursday's session. CCI(20) and Posture (a 0-100 read on trend strength) are computed from each instrument's own ETF proxy trend, except Nasdaq and S&P 500, which trend via QQQ and SPY respectively. Signal color is the Golden Thread read: green means the CCI is rising and above its 14-day average, red means falling and below its 14-day average, yellow means mixed.

5 / 100

THEY'VE GONE TO PLAID

Dollar (UUP) $28.62 sits at 94.9% of its 52-week range ($26.40 to $28.74). With just over 5% of headroom left before a fresh 52-week high, this remains a Strong Headwind reading for commodities priced in dollars, though it has eased back from Thursday's outright ceiling test. The Supercycle Score is the inverse of the dollar.

Friday's session did not undo Thursday's dollar breakout, it just stopped adding to it. UUP eased to $28.62, eight cents off Thursday's fresh 52-week high of $28.74, and that eight cents was enough to lift the Supercycle Score off the literal floor for the first time in three sessions, from zero to five. Five is not relief. It is still deep in "They've Gone to Plaid" territory, and the dollar remains parked at 94.9% of its own trailing range, which is about as little room as a currency can have left before it makes new highs outright.

The instrument that actually stands out today is not a commodity at all. The S&P 500 is the only confirmed GREEN trend anywhere on the board, Posture 72, its CCI reading of +70.1 sitting comfortably above its own 14-day average and still climbing. That is a genuinely different signal than "stocks were up half a percent Friday." It means the S&P's trend gauge, not just its price, is accelerating, even with a headwind-grade dollar sitting on top of the commodity complex. The Nasdaq gained even more on the session, +0.48% to a native close of 27,068.72, but its own CCI reading has not confirmed the move the way the S&P's has, so it stays YELLOW at a still-strong Posture of 87.

Crude oil had the roughest day on the board, down 3.11% to $148.33, and its CCI fell back under its 14-day average in the process, confirming RED. Natural gas, Thursday's breakout star at plus six percent, cooled to -3.64% Friday; its CCI is still one of the highest readings on the entire board at 171.4, Posture 91, but it is no longer rising day over day, so the Golden Thread downgrades it to YELLOW rather than confirming a second straight green session. That is the system doing exactly what it is built to do: separate a hot print from a trend that is still accelerating.

Corn is the ugliest confirmed read on the board, CCI -198.5, about as extreme a reading as this model produces, even though the ETF itself ticked up 0.25% Friday. That is the same lesson the Golden Thread keeps teaching: a single session's price move and a confirmed trend are two different questions. Soybeans joined corn in RED, down 0.72%, while gold, silver, copper, palladium and platinum all sit YELLOW, none of them willing to confirm a direction yet.

The Treasury curve moved fast into Friday's close: the 2-year settled at 4.81%, the 10-year at 5.17%, and the 30-year at 5.49%, leaving the 2s10s spread positively sloped by 36 basis points, up from roughly 21 basis points just three sessions earlier. The 10-year alone has climbed more than 20 basis points since Tuesday. The proximate driver is not subtle: crude is bid again this morning on a rejected Iran proposal over the Strait of Hormuz, with President Trump signaling he is not satisfied with Tehran's seven-day reopening plan, and the newswires are framing Friday's rate move as rising deficits and renewed Middle East friction working against the White House's stated goal of pushing rates and inflation lower. Separately, J.P. Morgan strategists flagged Monday that the recent pullback in the global AI trade has improved positioning and valuations enough to invite renewed interest, particularly in semiconductors, a note worth watching against the Nasdaq's still-unconfirmed YELLOW read on this board.

CFTC Commitment of Traders data for the week ending Tuesday, September 22, 2026 was released this past Friday. ICE US Dollar Index futures: large speculators held a net long position of 10,330 contracts, down from 10,593 the prior week, a modest trim in net dollar longs even as UUP pushed to a fresh 52-week high inside that same window, a positioning-versus-price divergence worth watching. Gold: large speculative (CFTC noncommercial) net length fell to roughly 225,853 contracts from about 230,338 the prior week, a fourth straight week of bulls trimming exposure even as gold attempts Friday's modest bounce. The next weekly CFTC release covers the week ending Tuesday, September 29, and is due out this Friday, October 3. On the calendar, the next scheduled dollar-moving events are the Fed's interest rate decision on October 28, 2026 and the September CPI report on October 14, 2026, both roughly two to four weeks out.

Down at the marina, they are still arguing about whether the shrimp boat that has been "six weeks from repaired" since July actually counts as a boat anymore, or just an expensive dock ornament with a diesel smell. Nine names on today's board are sitting in that exact spot, waiting on a trend line to actually confirm before anybody is allowed to call them fixed. Nat gas gunned the engine Thursday like it had somewhere to be, then eased back to idle Friday, the market equivalent of revving hard in the driveway and never actually pulling out of it. Half the oil desks in the world did something similar this morning, bidding crude up on an Iran headline nobody has confirmed yet. Around here, we call that puttering. Everywhere else, they are calling it a rally.

A dollar eight cents off its own high and a Supercycle Score of five are not the same thing as a headwind lifting. They are the same headwind, catching its breath. The S&P is the only name on the board that stopped waiting and actually committed today. Everything else, corn's ugly CCI included, is still tied up at the dock.

Brad Hoppmann

Supercycle Trader

25-year financial-publishing veteran

Data sources: dollar and commodity board via ETF proxies, Nasdaq and S&P 500 native index levels, and Treasury curve data all via Financial Modeling Prep (Massive Market Data was unavailable to this session, so FMP served as the full data source this morning, consistent with this letter's established fallback). CCI(20) and Posture computed from UUP, GLD, SLV, CPER, USO, UNG, CORN, SOYB, PALL, PPLT, QQQ and SPY daily price history. CFTC Commitment of Traders positioning (US Dollar Index and Gold) sourced directly via Financial Modeling Prep's COT data, week ending September 22, 2026. Supercycle Score is the inverse of the US dollar (UUP 52-week range). Data reflects the Friday, September 25, 2026 close.

Educational publication. The Daily Dashboard is for informational purposes only and does not constitute individualized investment advice. Trading commodities, futures and related instruments involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.