FROM THE TERMINAL

Gold's Golden Thread turned green on Wednesday and back to red on Thursday's close, as its CCI fell from -85 to -118. The Golden Terminal has the full CCI history behind that flip for every market on this board, plus the sector rotation map. It's free: one email confirmation, no card.

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THE LEAD

Wednesday was the best board of the month. Six markets had green threads, five were mixed, and only one was red. Thursday took most of that back.

Five of the six greens went dark in one session. Gold, silver and the S&P 500 turned red. Copper and the Nasdaq slipped back to mixed. The board now has one green, five mixed and six red.

Gold made the biggest turn. GLD fell 1.3% to $368.57 and its CCI dropped from -85 to -118, below its 14-day average of -104. Its green thread lasted exactly one day. Gold futures are off another 1.1% this morning to $3,988.20, back under $4,000.

Silver fell harder. SLV lost 3.6% to $47.28 and its CCI sank from -114 to -144. Platinum fell 3.6% too, and its posture of 9 is now the lowest on the board. This morning platinum and palladium futures both touched fresh 52-week lows.

Crude is the odd one. USO rose 1.0% to $168.19, yet its thread turned red. Its CCI eased from 112 to 95, below its 14-day average of 128. The price went up, but the trend got weaker. Crude futures are up another 2.2% this morning to $104.20, so today's close will tell us whether that red sticks.

The one green is corn. CORN rose 0.1% to $17.44 and its CCI improved from -118 to -110, above its average. Corn sits low in its range, with a posture of 19. But it is the only market on the board whose trend is getting better and staying better.

Now the dollar. UUP slipped just 0.07% to $29.04. That is 96.6% of its 52-week closing range, nine cents under its high. The Score holds at 3, Ludicrous Headwind. The dollar's CCI fell from 91 to 61. That is still above its 14-day average of 52, so its thread stays mixed.

That is the lesson of the day. The dollar did almost nothing, and it still won. When the dollar sits near the top of its range, it does not have to rally to hurt the metals. It only has to stay there.

Stocks are the new pressure point. The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.4% to 26,185 and the S&P 500 slipped 0.3% to 7,720. This morning Nasdaq 100 futures are down 2.4% after Amazon and Intel earnings deepened worries about AI spending, per Yahoo Finance and The Globe and Mail. S&P 500 futures are off 1.0%.

The Turtles had a rule for days like this: you don't argue with a red. Richard Dennis taught them to cut size when the trend turns against them and to wait for it to turn back. Five reds in one day is not the end of the supercycle. It is the tape telling you to be smaller until it says otherwise.

MACRO

The Treasury curve at Thursday's close: 1-month bills at 4.06%, the 2-year at 4.61%, the 10-year at 4.98% and the 30-year at 5.32%. The 20-year sits at 5.35%. The 2-year fell six basis points and the 10-year fell seven. The gap between them held near 37 basis points.

The data came in mostly as expected, with one hot number. Third-quarter GDP grew 3.4%, above the 3.2% forecast. Core PCE inflation was 3.1% from a year ago, right on forecast, and headline PCE was 3.6%. Weekly jobless claims fell to 194,000.

Yields fell even as growth beat. That kept the dollar from breaking out. It also didn't help the metals, which sold off anyway.

The next Dollar Event is this morning at 8:30 AM Eastern. The third-quarter Employment Cost Index is forecast at 0.8%, down from 0.9%. Chicago PMI follows at 9:45. Next week is heavy: ISM manufacturing on Monday, the midterm elections on Tuesday, and the October jobs report on Friday, November 6. Payrolls are forecast at 40,000 with unemployment at 4.2%.

POSITIONING

The next Commitment of Traders report lands this afternoon at 3:30 PM Eastern. It covers the week of the Fed meeting. Until then, the report through October 20 still frames the board.

Large speculators held a net long of 15,044 dollar index futures contracts, 65.1% net long, after at least three straight weekly adds. In gold, the same crowd trimmed for a fifth straight week, to a net long of 199,865 contracts, 86.42% net long.

Gold's thread turned green on Wednesday while that crowd was still trimming. On Thursday it turned back red. Today's report will show whether the speculators kept selling into the Fed. If they did, Thursday's red looks less like a shakeout and more like the crowd being right.

FROM THE PORCH

Space Coast Daily has the 48th BBQ Bowl on its live feed this week, Rockledge heading over to Cocoa. Forty-eight of them. That's a lot of smoke over a football field.

I like rivalry games for one reason. Every coach says the same line the week of one: throw out the records. It doesn't matter what you did in September. It doesn't matter who you beat. When two towns next door line up against each other, the season starts over for one night.

Anybody who grew up in Titusville knows that line by heart. You heard it on the radio Friday afternoon. You heard it from your uncle at the gas station. And most years, somebody's 2-6 team went out and proved it.

That was Thursday on this board. Wednesday's record was six greens, the best of the month. Thursday threw out the record. Gold went from green to red in one session. Silver and the S&P 500 went red. Copper and the Nasdaq dropped back to mixed. The only name that kept its record was corn, the one nobody talks about on the radio.

And the dollar? It barely moved. UUP slipped seven cents. It didn't have to play. When you are sitting at 97% of your range, the other team has to come to you.

Coke-TV runs today as "Amazon and Intel sink tech." Pepsi-TV runs it as "gold loses $4,000." Neither one mentions two towns on the Indian River that have been throwing out the records for forty-eight years and still show up to play.

One green, six reds, and a dollar that didn't have to play. Respect the reds, keep an eye on corn, and check the COT report at 3:30. Have a good weekend. - Brad

ALSO WORTH READING

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Data sources: live front-month futures quotes (7:20 AM ET), ETF-proxy and index daily closes for Posture, the Golden Thread and the Score, the Treasury curve, CFTC Commitment of Traders data and the economic calendar, all via Financial Modeling Prep. Amazon and Intel premarket color per Yahoo Finance and The Globe and Mail (10/30). BBQ Bowl per Space Coast Daily (10/28). Hero photo: Unsplash.

This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before making any investment decision.