The Daily Dashboard
Not a Single Green Light on the Board
Fed Day Arrives With Hike Odds at a Cycle High
Wednesday, July 29, 2026 · FOMC rate decision at 2pm ET today
TRADER'S BRIEF
Every one of the 12 names on the board confirmed either YELLOW or RED Tuesday, zero GREEN postures, the first fully non-green session this letter has recorded, even with most of the day's individual moves running under 3%.
Gold (GLD) fell 1.40% to 369.37 (spot near $4,032/oz) and silver (SLV) fell 2.32% to 51.70, both confirming RED, as firming Fed hike odds propped the dollar up into today's decision.
Crude oil (USO) fell another 3.42% to 120.49, a second straight down day, even as a late-Tuesday report that U.S. forces intercepted an Iranian attack briefly spiked WTI intraday.
The Supercycle Score ticked up one point off the literal floor to 1/100, still "They've Gone to Plaid," a third straight session in the model's most extreme band, as the dollar eased two cents off Monday's fresh 52-week high.
The Fed's decision lands today at 2pm ET, Chair Kevin Warsh's second meeting at the helm. Hike odds have firmed since yesterday, with today's sources clustering 62%-68.5% hold (roughly 31.5%-38% hike), among the highest of this cycle.
With Brad Hoppmann