The Daily Dashboard

Not a Single Green Light on the Board

Fed Day Arrives With Hike Odds at a Cycle High

Wednesday, July 29, 2026 · FOMC rate decision at 2pm ET today

TRADER'S BRIEF

  • Every one of the 12 names on the board confirmed either YELLOW or RED Tuesday, zero GREEN postures, the first fully non-green session this letter has recorded, even with most of the day's individual moves running under 3%.

  • Gold (GLD) fell 1.40% to 369.37 (spot near $4,032/oz) and silver (SLV) fell 2.32% to 51.70, both confirming RED, as firming Fed hike odds propped the dollar up into today's decision.

  • Crude oil (USO) fell another 3.42% to 120.49, a second straight down day, even as a late-Tuesday report that U.S. forces intercepted an Iranian attack briefly spiked WTI intraday.

  • The Supercycle Score ticked up one point off the literal floor to 1/100, still "They've Gone to Plaid," a third straight session in the model's most extreme band, as the dollar eased two cents off Monday's fresh 52-week high.

  • The Fed's decision lands today at 2pm ET, Chair Kevin Warsh's second meeting at the helm. Hike odds have firmed since yesterday, with today's sources clustering 62%-68.5% hold (roughly 31.5%-38% hike), among the highest of this cycle.

With Brad Hoppmann

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