By Brad Hoppmann

Friday was a rotation day, and a loud one.

Tech sold off hard. The Nasdaq fell 2.14% to 26,140, and the S&P 500 lost 1.09%. Tech was the worst sector in the S&P, while energy was the best, up about 2.5%. The worry was money. Investors started asking whether the AI boom can earn back what it costs, and how much of it runs on borrowed money. CoreWeave, which TheStreet says carries about $50 billion in debt, was down nearly 12% at midday. For the week, the Nasdaq lost 4.5%, its worst stretch since late June, per AP.

Oil went the other way. WTI jumped 3.51% to settle at $101.41 a barrel. Brent touched $109.86, its first trip that high since May, after renewed strikes around the Strait of Hormuz. On the board, USO rose 2.83% to $161.76, a hair under its September closing high of $161.86.

Jim Rogers would tell you to go look at the thing, so look at crude's thread. Its CCI jumped from 166 to 217. That's above the prior day and far above its 14-day average of 4. Posture 95, the strongest bar on the board, and green for a fourth straight session. This isn't one headline. Crude has been building this trend all week.

Now the dollar. UUP slipped 0.28% to $28.92. Its thread stayed red for a second day, with its CCI falling from 57 to 26, well under its 14-day average of 103. That lifts the Score from 5 to 8, out of Ludicrous Headwind and into Strong Headwind. Small move, right direction.

The metals didn't follow oil up, but they didn't break either. Gold dipped 0.18% to $382.01, yet its thread stayed green for a second day. Its CCI rose from -34 to -20, far above a 14-day average of -92. Platinum slipped just 0.07% and turned green, with its CCI climbing from -126 to -103. Copper rose 0.13% and moved from red to yellow. Silver fell 0.79% and stays yellow; its CCI of -126 sits just under its average.

The losers are worth naming. Nat gas fell 3.88% and its thread flipped red. Corn and palladium both slipped and lost the green they had on Thursday. Soybeans stay red with a posture of 9.

Then there's the Nasdaq. Its CCI fell from -128 to -203, the deepest reading on the board, posture 6. The S&P 500's CCI dropped to -89. Both threads red. That's three confirmed greens, five reds, and four yellows.

The Turtle Traders kept a simple rule: trade the trend you have, not the one you want. Right now the trend you have says energy up, tech down, and the dollar leaning lower without breaking. Crude at posture 95 is extended, so a pullback wouldn't be a surprise and wouldn't break the trend. The Nasdaq at posture 6 is oversold, so a bounce wouldn't fix its thread either. Let the threads tell you when either one changes.

The Treasury curve at Friday's close, per the Treasury's daily curve via FMP: 1-month bills at 4.12%, the 2-year at 4.74%, the 10-year at 5.09%, and the 30-year at 5.43%.

Friday itself was quiet in bonds. The 2-year fell 3 basis points, the 10-year 1, and the 30-year held flat. The week was the story. The 10-year finished 15 basis points below where it closed on October 9, and the 30-year 17 lower. The 2-year to 10-year spread sits at 35 basis points. Long yields falling through a week with hot CPI and PPI prints says bond traders are worried about growth, not just prices.

The Fed didn't add much clarity. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh declined to say whether the committee leans toward a hike or a hold. "It's a new chapter at the Fed, and we're not in that business anymore," he said, per AP. Traders cut the odds of a quarter-point hike at the October meeting to 17% from 28% a day earlier, per CME FedWatch (medium confidence; those odds move fast).

The Dollar Event is the FOMC meeting on October 27 and 28. The decision lands Wednesday the 28th at 2:00 PM Eastern. Before then, big tech earnings start rolling in, with Netflix on Tuesday. A Fed that holds while oil runs over $100 would be a soft-dollar setup. A surprise hike would test the dollar's red thread hard.

Fresh CFTC Commitment of Traders data came out Friday, covering the week ended Tuesday, October 13.

In dollar index futures, large speculators were 62.36% net long at 12,919 contracts, up from 12,011 the week before. The crowd kept buying the dollar right up to its high. Since then, the dollar's thread has turned red two days running. If that holds, those late longs become sellers, and that's fuel for a move lower.

In gold futures, speculators were 86.76% net long at 207,879 contracts. That's at least the fourth straight report of trimming: 225,853, then 218,632, then 210,335, now 207,879. Gold's thread confirmed green anyway. A trend that turns up while the crowd is still getting lighter has room for the crowd to come back.

The tell for this week: watch whether gold's thread holds green while the dollar's stays red. Two more sessions of that and the gold setup gets serious.

SpaceX had a Falcon 9 set to fly from the Cape this morning on a mission called Bandwagon-5, per Space Coast Daily. It's a rideshare. A bunch of different customers' satellites, from different outfits with different plans, all strapped onto one rocket because none of them could afford a ride alone.

I love that somebody at SpaceX named it Bandwagon. That's honest marketing. Nobody on that rocket picks the trajectory. They paid for a seat, they're bolted in, and they go where the rocket goes.

Friday the market loaded up its own bandwagon. Money climbed off the tech rocket and onto the oil one, all in about six and a half hours. Crude ran 2.8% and tech had its worst week since June.

Anybody who grew up watching launches from the Titusville riverbank knows this one. You can't tell much from the first ten seconds. Every rocket looks great clearing the tower. What matters is whether it's still climbing after the crowd starts walking back to the car.

Oil's thread has been climbing for four sessions. That's past the tower. But a ride that runs on Hormuz headlines goes where the headlines go, and nobody on board gets to steer.

Coke-TV runs Friday as "the AI bubble finally pops." Pepsi-TV runs it as "oil spike threatens the economy." Neither one mentions that everybody who jumped from one story to the other was riding the same rocket, just in a different seat.

Three greens, five reds, and a dollar that gave up a little more ground. Respect crude's trend, don't chase it, and keep your eyes on the 28th. - Brad

Data sources: ETF-proxy closes for the board and the dollar, native index levels for Nasdaq and the S&P 500, Treasury curve and CFTC Commitment of Traders data via Financial Modeling Prep. Oil settlement, Fed, and market color per the Associated Press (via The Star) and TheStreet; Bandwagon-5 schedule per Space Coast Daily and Suncoast News. Supercycle Score is the inverse of the US dollar's trailing 52-week closing range (UUP). Hero photo: Unsplash, from the Supercycle Trader media library.

This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before making any investment decision.