supercycletrader.com

Friday, June 19, 2026

The TL;DR

With Brad Hoppmann

The Supercycle Score is the inverse of the dollar.

Scoreboard

as of the 6/18 close (markets closed 6/19, Juneteenth). Dot color = Golden Thread inflection: green = CCI rising above both its prior reading and its 14-day average; red = falling below both; yellow = mixed.

Yesterday the dollar climbed while stocks fell. Today they climbed together, and that is the wrinkle worth your coffee. The Nasdaq ripped +2.51% and sits green-and-rising on the 20-day CCI (+65), the dollar pressed further toward the top of its 52-week range (CCI +198, the lone triple-digit bar), and nat gas turned up with them. Risk-on, yes, but led by the buck and big tech, the two things our thesis least wants in front. Because the Supercycle Score is the inverse of the dollar, a dollar at ~93% of its range reads 7, a deeper headwind than yesterday's 13.

Step past the green and the hard-asset complex tells the truer story. Copper and crude are the two red bars, both rolled over through their prior reading and their 14-day average, the late-cycle "demand is soft" tell that a one-day uptick in price doesn't erase. The precious metals, gold, silver, platinum, palladium, slipped again on the day, yet on trend they're only yellow: pinned by the dollar, not broken on their own merits. The grains sat quiet, mixed, waiting.

Here is the discipline our readers borrow from the Turtle Traders and from Jim Rogers: you don't sell the primary trend because the business cycle threw a party for the dollar and the Nasdaq. The supercycle is set by the dollar's long arc, and that arc bends one way, a government that owes more than it can tax pays the difference at the printing press. So watch one line and ignore the confetti: the day the dollar's tall green bar rolls over, the eleven bars beneath it are where the snap-back lives.

2yr 4.19% · 10yr 4.46% · 30yr 4.90%. 2s10s slope +27 bps, positively sloped. Day-over-day the long end eased a touch, 10yr −3 bps (4.49 to 4.46), 30yr −3 bps (4.93 to 4.90), a mild bull-flatten into a risk-on equity tape, the curve nudging from +29 to +27. The FOMC decision is now two days behind us (June 17, 2:00pm ET), and the dollar has held the post-Fed bid that buried the score. Regime read: orderly, still-positive curve, long end leaking lower even as stocks run. The question for our book is unchanged, does the dot-plot bend the dollar's long arc, or just flex the business cycle?

COT positioning isn't on the current plan to pull live, and today's Juneteenth holiday likely pushes the next CFTC Commitment of Traders report to Monday, June 22 (medium-confidence), it would capture positions as of Tuesday June 16, i.e. how the big money in gold, copper and the dollar was leaning into the Fed. With the cash market dark today, there's no new tape to chase; the 6/18 close is the read.

From the porch in Taintsville I read two sevens this morning and grinned. The scoreboard says the Supercycle Score is a 7, and down the road the 7 Brew folks are bolting together their seventh coffee stand in Brevard, first one in Titusville. Two sevens, no connection, except both are really about the same dollar. The screen says that dollar is mighty. The drive-thru window says otherwise: a large with the extra shot costs about what a tank of gas ran in the shuttle days, and nobody at the speaker box got a vote on that. One channel calls the strong dollar "resilient," the other calls it "restrictive," and the gal handing you the cup just knows last summer it rang up cheaper. Out here we don't argue with the screen or the channels, we watch the river, we watch the launches, and we remember a dollar struts hardest right before it has to buy something. A 7 isn't the sky falling. It's the dollar taking a bow it can't quite afford.

Watch the dollar, not the fireworks, when a buck struts this hard, the next move usually isn't up. See you on the next leg.
, Brad

1. Our thesis: a falling dollar lifts everything priced in dollars, so the score measures how weak the dollar is, its position in its trailing 52-week range, flipped. Dollar near its 1-year low to near 100 (tailwind); near its 1-year high to near 0 (headwind). Today the dollar sits at ~93% of its range (UUP 28.30 in 26.40–28.45), so the score reads 7.

Data sources: the Board + dollar via Massive Market Data daily ETF proxies (GLD, SLV, USO, UNG, SOYB, CORN, CPER, PALL, PPLT, UUP, QQQ, SPY); Treasury curve via Financial Modeling Prep; CCI computed from 38 daily bars/instrument. Built 2026-06-19; data reflects the Thursday 2026-06-18 close (markets closed 6/19 for Juneteenth).

Educational publication of supercycletrader.com, not individualized investment advice.