SUPERCYCLETRADER.COM

Wednesday, July 1, 2026

With Brad Hoppmann

The Supercycle Score is the inverse of the dollar.

A falling dollar lifts everything priced in dollars, so the score just measures how weak the dollar is: its place in its trailing 52-week range, flipped. Dollar near its 1-year low, near 100 (tailwind); near its 1-year high, near 0 (headwind). Tuesday UUP closed 28.41 in a 26.395 to 28.5599 band, about 93.1% of range, so the score reads 7, down from 9. "Strong Headwind" is the 6 to 24 tier. The dollar's price firmed for the first time in three sessions, which is what pushed the score down, even though its own 20-day CCI kept easing.

green = turning up (CCI above prior and above 14-day average). yellow = mixed. red = rolling over (below both). CCI is the 20-day Commodity Channel Index; the dollar's color is its own trend, read as a headwind.

The story in the colors: yesterday a genuinely mixed board; today a wall of green. Nine of twelve readings flipped up because nearly every commodity CCI is turning higher off a washed-out base at the same time the two stock indices and crude keep grinding up. That is real, and it is the first time this month the metals and the paper market are green together. But read it through the one filter that matters: the dollar rose on the same day. A green board built on a firming dollar is a momentum bounce, not a supercycle thrust. The two reds tell you where the caution is: the dollar itself (price firm, momentum finally rolling) and platinum (still falling). When the green on this board is caused by red on the dollar, that is the day to lean in. Tuesday was not that day.

Here is the picture you want, and here is the catch inside it. Tuesday the board did the thing we have been waiting a month to see: it turned green almost everywhere at once. Silver up a percent and a half, copper up a third, corn up nearly two, nat gas up two and a half, and the Nasdaq and the S&P climbing right alongside them. Nine of twelve trend readings flipped up. For a session, the metals and the paper market stopped trading places and rose together, and every CCI on the commodity side started curling up off the floor. If you only looked at the colors, you would say the supercycle finally kicked.

Then you look at the thirteenth instrument, the one that is not on the board but sits underneath all of it, and the picture changes. The dollar did not fall on Tuesday. It rose. Up a tenth of a percent to 28.41, back to ninety-three percent of its year's range, and the score, which reads nothing but the dollar, slipped from 9 to 7. So we had the whole complex go green on a day the dollar firmed. That is the tell. A commodity that rises while the dollar rises is rising on its own momentum, bouncing off a washed-out low, short-covering into a thin pre-holiday tape. A commodity that rises while the dollar falls is rising because the thing it is priced in is losing value underneath it. Those are two different animals wearing the same green coat.

Now the discipline, because the levels still say where we have been. Silver's CCI is minus ninety-eight, copper's minus fifty-four, corn's minus ninety-six, crude's minus eighty-eight. These are washed-out readings turning up, which is exactly what the start of a real move looks like, and also exactly what a dead-cat bounce looks like on day one. The Turtle wouldn't buy the first green candle after a month underwater any more than he would sell the first red one; he waits for the primary trend, and the primary trend is the dollar. Rogers would say the same in fewer words: don't tell me the metals are up, tell me what the dollar did. What to watch: whether the dollar resumes falling and drags the green with it (that is the confirmation), or whether the dollar keeps firming and the green fades back to yellow by Thursday (that is the fake). One green board on a firm dollar is a bounce. A green board on a falling dollar is the trend. We do not have the second one yet.

Where we are on the clock: for six weeks a firm dollar held the whole real-asset complex underwater, and the last week has been the first set of tremors. But the tremors keep sending a mixed signal if you read the wrong instrument. Thursday, a hot inflation print the dollar couldn't rally on. Friday, metals up while stocks fell. Monday, stocks up while metals fell. Tuesday, everything up together, dollar included. Four sessions, four different-looking days, and if you watch the board you get whiplash. The line this issue defends: the only reading that has told a straight story through all four days is the dollar, and Tuesday's green board does not count as a supercycle signal precisely because the dollar went the wrong way for it. The supercycle needs the dollar to lose its grip, session after session, dragging the real assets up behind it. A day where commodities and the dollar both rise is a day the market got broadly bid, not a day the debasement thesis advanced. The score is the honest scorekeeper here: it ignored Tuesday's wall of green entirely and ticked down to 7, because the only input it reads is the one instrument that firmed. Watch the dollar make a lower low. That is the green that counts. The rest is a nice-looking bounce.

2yr 4.14%, 10yr 4.44%, 30yr 4.91%; 2s10s slope +30 bps, positively sloped and un-inverted (6/30 close). Day over day the whole curve backed up as risk assets ripped: 2yr +4 bp (4.10 to 4.14), 10yr +6 bp (4.38 to 4.44), 30yr +5 bp (4.86 to 4.91), steepening the 2s10s from +28 to +30. This is the mirror of Friday's flight bid: a broadly risk-on session pulled rate-cut premium back out of the curve, and the same impulse firmed the dollar. The bond market is still pricing a Fed that eventually cuts into a slowdown rather than one that hikes into hot inflation, but Tuesday it priced a little less of that cut. A firmer-yields, firmer-dollar day is the macro reason the board's green did not move the score. Events: the FOMC is behind us (June 17, held 3.50 to 3.75% for a fourth straight meeting), and the calendar now runs into a holiday-shortened week: July 4 falls on a Saturday in 2026, so markets observe Friday, July 3 (closed or early-close), which pulls the June jobs report forward (likely Thursday July 2) and likely delays the next COT to Monday July 6.

The most recent regular CFTC Commitments of Traders printed Friday, June 26 (about 3:30pm ET), reflecting positioning as of Tuesday, June 23: a snapshot that predates Friday's metals decoupling, Monday's equity snapback, and Tuesday's green-everything session. So the positioning data we have is now four trading days stale against a fast-moving tape. The next release is the one that finally shows whether last week's hard-asset bid and this week's broad bounce were real spec accumulation or thin, pre-holiday short-covering, and its timing is likely shifted by the July 4 holiday week: the CFTC typically delays a day around federal holidays, which would push it to Monday, July 6. The question the next COT answers has sharpened: when the whole board went green Tuesday, were big specs adding to hard-asset longs, or just covering into a thin tape while the dollar firmed under them?

There's a little crime wave running up and down the Space Coast right now that tells you everything about how people navigate. Somebody's been going boat to boat in the marinas after dark and popping the fancy Garmin chartplotters right out of the dashboards, the big glowing screens folks spend a couple thousand dollars on so the water will tell them where they are. Whole rows of boats, screens gone, wires hanging. And you can picture the fellow who comes down to his slip Saturday morning, coffee in hand, and finds a black hole where his map used to be, and just stands there, because he genuinely does not know how to get out to the inlet anymore without the screen lit up telling him.

His granddad did. His granddad ran that same river for fifty years off a compass, a watch, and the color of the water, and could find the channel in the fog by the way the current pushed the hull. The screen didn't make him a better navigator; it made him a worse one, because it let him quit reading the one thing that never gets stolen: the water itself.

Tuesday the whole market screen lit up green. Every pretty gauge on the dashboard, silver, copper, corn, gas, the Nasdaq, all of it glowing the same happy color, and Coke-TV read the screen and said the all-clear's been sounded, and Pepsi-TV read the screen and said enjoy it while it lasts because the recession's still coming. Both of them staring at the same glowing box. And underneath the whole thing, quiet as the current, the dollar firmed up and pushed our score down, which means the green on that screen wasn't the tide turning, it was just a pretty light. Out here you learn the screen can lie, or get stolen, or glow green on a day that doesn't mean a thing. The water doesn't. The water on Tuesday was the dollar, and the dollar went the wrong way for all that green. Read the water. The screen's the first thing that goes.

The board went green, the screen looked great, and the one gauge that isn't on it, the dollar, quietly firmed and knocked the score down to 7. Don't buy the green until the dollar makes it real. Read the water, not the screen. Brad

Brad Hoppmann
Supercycle Trader
25-year financial-publishing veteran

Data sources: the Board via Massive Market Data daily ETF-proxy quotes (6/30 close vs 6/29 prior trading day); all 12 CCI readings computed fresh from Massive daily OHLC through the 6/30 close; live gold cross-check via FMP (GCUSD) and Crypto.com (GC Live). Treasury curve via FMP (6/30). Supercycle Score = inverse of the US dollar (UUP 52-week range; low 26.395, high 28.5599, close 28.41 = 93.1% of range). Built 2026-07-01; data reflects the Tuesday 2026-06-30 close.