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Crude Jumps Nearly 4%

Monday, July 20, 2026

The Supercycle Score holds flat at 11/100, "Strong Headwind" (from Friday's 10), as the dollar barely moved (-0.04%), still pinned near a cycle-high 89.4% of its 52-week range.

Board breadth flipped from zero green Thursday to six of twelve names green Friday, but only oil confirmed a green CCI trend; the rest of Friday's gainers (gold, silver, corn, nat gas, soybeans) bounced within trends still coded yellow or red.

Oil led with a 3.91% jump as the Strait of Hormuz war entered a sixth straight night of US airstrikes and Brent spiked 4.6% to roughly $88/bbl; the IRGC claimed to have stopped four vessels over the weekend, an uncorroborated claim that kept tensions elevated into Monday's open.

Equities sold off on an unrelated story: the Nasdaq (QQQ posture 7, red) fell 1.5%, and semiconductor names dropped more than 4%, after a rival's new open-weight AI model release stoked fresh doubts about whether AI-driven valuations have run ahead of fundamentals.

The first fresh CFTC positioning print in three issues (the July 14 release) showed large speculators trimmed gold net-longs to roughly 186,700 contracts, down about 7,600 from July 7, even as total open interest grew, new money on both sides of the trade, not a clean exit.