The Daily Dashboard Day Two of the Flush

A falling dollar lifts everything priced in dollars, so the score just measures how weak the dollar is: its place in its trailing 52-week range, flipped. Dollar near its 1-year low approaches 100; near its 1-year high approaches 0. Wednesday UUP closed at another fresh high, 28.53 in a 26.395 to 28.5599 band, about 98.6% of range, so the score reads 1.

Legend: green = turning up (CCI greater than prior and average); red = rolling over (below both); yellow = mixed. Still a wall of red: seven red dots, four yellow, one green, with the dollar pinned near the top of its range and everything real pinned near the bottom. The one change worth noting: the lone green dot moved from soybeans to nat gas. The metals and PGMs took the brunt; the grains and indices bent without breaking.

Tuesday was a flush. Wednesday was the flush deciding it wasn't finished. Silver fell another 7.09%, roughly a 12% haircut in two sessions, and it had company: palladium -5.46%, platinum -4.88%, crude -4.47%, gold -3.02%, copper -2.71%. Ten of the twelve instruments on the board closed lower, and the two that didn't were nat gas and, once again, the dollar, which ticked up a hair to yet another marginal new high. The metals complex that spent a month defying a rising dollar has now given the whole move back: live gold is near $3,980, down from roughly $4,200 a week ago.

Here is the part that matters more than the red ink. The momentum readings have gone to genuine extremes. Copper's 20-day CCI is -261. Silver's is -193. Those are not "weak" readings; those are washed-out, capitulation readings, the kind that show up at the bottom of a flush far more often than at the start of one. That is not a buy signal. Momentum is still pointed straight down, and the Turtle's rule holds: you do not step in front of a primary trend just because it has gone a long way. But you do note when the rubber band is stretched this far, because the snap-backs come from exactly here.

And there is a second tell, quieter and more durable than any single down day. The bond market spent Wednesday voting for rate cuts, not just at the front end this time, but all the way down the curve. The 2-year fell 5 basis points to 4.11%, the 10-year fell 9 to 4.41%, the 30-year fell 8 to 4.86%. That is a broad bull flattening, and it happened while the dollar was making a new high. Read that carefully: the dollar's strength this week is a global risk-off scramble for dollars, not a US-rates story, because US rates are falling. The instrument that ends this lull is a dollar that finally rolls, and the rate market just leaned harder on the lever that eventually rolls it. The next vote is today. May core PCE prints at 8:30 Eastern, forecast at +0.37%, hotter than April. A hot number re-arms the dollar and presses the Score flat against the floor. A soft one is the first real chance for that washed-out tape to find a bid and for the dollar to finally crack.

The business-cycle lull is now doing the ugliest thing a lull does: it is taking the long, washed-out things and washing them out further. Two straight days of liquidation, a Score stuck at 1, silver down double digits in a week, this is the part of the cycle that separates the people who own the supercycle thesis from the people who rented it. Nothing about a -7% silver day tells you the long arc has changed. A dollar that loses value every year still drags everything real up behind it over time; a dollar making a new high in a panic week is the lull at its most violent, not the supercycle breaking.

The two things that keep me patient are both on the screen, not on the television: the CCIs are stretched to capitulation extremes, and the bond market is now pricing cuts across the entire curve. The line this issue defends: the deeper this flush cuts with the dollar at new highs, the closer the spring is wound. Watch the CCIs for a turn and the dollar for the roll, and let PCE cast the next vote.

2yr 4.11% · 10yr 4.41% · 30yr 4.86%; 2s10s slope +30 bps, positively sloped and un-inverted (6/24 close). Day-over-day the curve bull-flattened: the 2yr fell 5 bps (4.16 to 4.11), the 10yr fell 9 (4.50 to 4.41) and the 30yr fell 8 (4.94 to 4.86), narrowing 2s10s from +34 to +30. Where Tuesday's move was a front-end-only bull steepener, Wednesday's rate-cut bid ran the length of the curve: the whole curve repriced lower even as the dollar rose, which tells you the dollar's bid is a global flight to liquidity, not a widening US-rate advantage.

The dollar event is now: May PCE / Personal Income and Outlays prints today, Thursday June 25, 8:30 a.m. ET, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, core forecast +0.37% m/m (vs +0.24% in April), headline deflator +0.5%. The FOMC is a week behind us (June 17, held 3.50 to 3.75% for a fourth straight meeting, medium-confidence). (PCE date high-confidence per the BEA release schedule; estimate medium-confidence.)

The next regular CFTC Commitments of Traders prints Friday, June 26 (~3:30pm ET), capturing positioning as of Tuesday, June 24, which makes Friday's report the first smart-money snapshot to fully include this two-day flush. That is the one to watch: were the big specs caught long the metals into the washout, or had they already been lightening up into it? The CFTC feed is off our current plan, so we flag the calendar rather than the numbers. With PCE landing first (this morning) and a post-flush COT right behind it (Friday), the back half of this week decides whether the dollar's grip holds or finally meets the rate market's broadening cut bet. (Timing medium-confidence.)

There's a crime spree running up and down the Space Coast right now, and it is the most on-the-nose thing I've seen all week: thieves are prying high-end Garmin chartplotters straight out of boat dashboards along the Indian and Banana rivers. You walk down to the dock, and the screen that tells you where the channel is, gone. Wires hanging. Captain's got a wheel, a throttle, and no idea where the sandbar starts.

That is the commodity market this week to the letter. Two days running, somebody reached into the dash and yanked the instruments out. Silver, gold, copper, the platinum-group gauges, every readout that tells you where you are, ripped clean off the panel. So now everybody's out there running on dead reckoning and hollering across the water. Flip on the television and watch the two captains argue: Coke-TV says the chartplotter was overrated, trust the skipper's gut; Pepsi-TV says see, you never needed the thing. Both of them are about to find the sandbar the hard way.

Here's what the old hands on this coast know, the ones who ran these rivers before any of us had a screen: when your electronics die, you don't panic and you don't argue. You find the channel markers and you watch the tide. The tide this week is the dollar, still running one direction. And the channel marker, the little red one nobody on TV is looking at, is a 2-year yield slipping quietly under, the bond market betting the current's about to turn. Out here, down the road, they just rolled a fresh RS-25 into the big building at the Cape for the next Moon shot. This coast still knows the difference between a count that's holding and one that's lit. The market's count is holding. Watch the markers.

Two ugly days don't break a supercycle, they wind the spring. The dollar's still loud, the metals are washed out, and the bond market just started arguing back. Watch the markers, and let PCE talk first. - Brad

Brad Hoppmann · Editor · Supercycle Trader
25-year financial-publishing veteran; founder of the supercycletrader.com hub.

Data sources: the Board and dollar via Massive Market Data daily ETF proxies (6/24 close vs 6/23 prior trading day), CCI computed from about 31 complete daily bars per instrument and validated against the 6/23 published CCIs; live gold cross-check via Crypto.com (GC Live / PAXG); Treasury curve via Financial Modeling Prep (6/24). Supercycle Score = inverse of the US dollar (UUP 52-wk range; low 26.395 / high 28.5599 / close 28.53 = 98.6% of range). Built 2026-06-25; data reflects the Wednesday 2026-06-24 close.

Educational publication of supercycletrader.com. Not individualized investment advice.