supercycletrader.com

Tuesday, June 23, 2026

The TL;DR

With Brad Hoppmann

The Supercycle Score is the inverse of the dollar.

Scoreboard

as of the 6/22 close (vs 6/18, the prior trading day, no close 6/19 Juneteenth). Dot color = Golden Thread inflection: green = CCI rising above both its prior reading and its 14-day average; red = falling below both; yellow = mixed.

The board moved again, and the most important thing on it is the thing that didn't move much: the dollar. It closed Monday up a fifth of a percent at 28.36, still pinned near a 52-week high, still generating a Supercycle Score of 4, strong headwind. But look under the price at the momentum. The dollar's 20-day CCI, which has been a relentless triple-digit climb, finally ticked down, +198.0 to +197.5. After weeks of a one-way strut, that's the first time the dollar's own trend bar slipped from green to yellow. Pinned, but no longer pushing higher.

That matters because of what's happening beneath it. Nat gas (+0.26%, CCI +90) and soybeans (+0.29%, CCI −37 but rising) are the only two green-and-rising bars on the board, and soybeans are the textbook case the Golden Thread is built to catch: a deeply negative CCI inflecting up off a washed-out 14-day base. The leaders aren't leading. The laggards are stirring. Meanwhile copper rolled red (CCI −35, below both its prior reading and its average), the S&P slipped red, and the rest of the metals sit yellow, pinned, not broken.

The one wrinkle that cuts the other way: live gold, which spent last week quietly defying the strong dollar near $4,200, bent this session, back to roughly $4,120. A week ago gold was the lone holdout; today it joined the dollar-driven pullback. That's honest, and it's the part of the tape a Turtle would respect: you don't fall in love with a holdout, you wait for the trend to turn. And the trend that matters, the dollar's, just lost its forward gear. Watch one line into Thursday: May PCE. A hot print re-arms the dollar and presses the 4 lower; a soft one is the first real chance for that flattening CCI to roll. The supercycle is set by the dollar's long arc, and this morning the arc stopped going up.

For a week the business-cycle clock looked frozen; this morning it ticked, and the tick is worth more than the number. The dollar is still parked at the top of its range, the Score is still a 4, still a strong headwind, but for the first time in this whole run, the dollar's momentum went flat. Its 20-day CCI slipped from +198.0 to +197.5. That's not a rollover. It's the engine easing off the gas at the top of the hill. And right on cue, the cheapest, most-hated corners of the board, soybeans, nat gas, are the ones flickering green, turning up off bases nobody wanted to touch. The supercycle doesn't announce itself with the leaders; it whispers first in the laggards. The line this issue defends: a dollar that stops climbing is the first crack in a 4, and the grain pits are already reading the memo.

2yr 4.24% · 10yr 4.51% · 30yr 4.95%. 2s10s slope +27 bps, positively sloped and un-inverted (6/22 close). Day-over-day the whole curve bear-shifted ~+5 bps vs 6/18 (2yr +5, 10yr +5, 30yr +5), a near-parallel rise that left the slope unchanged at +27. Regime read: orderly, still-positive curve, but higher nominal yields and a record-high dollar keep real-rate pressure on the supercycle, the same vise the Score flags. The FOMC is six days behind us (June 17, held 3.50–3.75% for a fourth straight meeting, medium-confidence). The nearest dollar mover is dead ahead: May PCE, Thursday June 25, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, with estimates running hot (~3.6%+ y/y) on the back of upward inflation revisions. (Economics calendar off-plan, date high-confidence, estimate medium-confidence.)

The Juneteenth-delayed CFTC Commitments of Traders printed Monday afternoon (~3:30pm ET), capturing positioning as of Tuesday, June 16, the last pre-Fed snapshot. The next regular COT lands Friday, June 26 (positions as of June 23). The CFTC feed is off our current plan, so we flag the calendar rather than the numbers, but with PCE on Thursday and a fresh COT on Friday, the back half of this week is where the dollar's stalled momentum gets tested. (Timing medium-confidence; CFTC holiday pattern is a Monday catch-up.)

A fella down in Brevard got himself arrested this month for standing up at a traffic stop and announcing he was the lawyer, no bar card, no degree, just a straight face and a lot of confidence. They booked him anyway, because around here the badge eventually asks to see the paper. I thought about that man all week watching the dollar. It struts around the top of its range looking like the most powerful thing in the room, and both channels nod along, Coke-TV holds it up like a fortress, Pepsi-TV calls it a vise, but neither one checks the paperwork. And the paperwork this week says the strut quit gaining ground. The dollar's still standing tall; it just stopped actually growing, the way a launch can sit lit up "go" on the board while the count's quietly slipped into a hold. Out here on the Space Coast we grew up knowing the difference between a rocket that's leaving and one that's only loud on the pad. Meanwhile nobody on either channel is talking about the soybeans, the cheapest, most-ignored thing in the yard, turning green first. That's usually how it goes. The big voice runs out of paper before the quiet corner runs out of patience.

Don't argue with the loud number, read its momentum. The dollar's still tall, but it stopped climbing this week, and the grain pits started greening. That's the order these turns come in.
, Brad

1. Our thesis: a falling dollar lifts everything priced in dollars, so the score measures how weak the dollar is, its position in its trailing 52-week range, flipped. Dollar near its 1-year low to near 100 (tailwind); near its 1-year high to near 0 (headwind). Today the dollar sits at ~95.6% of its range (UUP 28.36 in 26.395–28.45), so the score reads 4.

Data sources: the Board + dollar via Massive Market Data daily ETF proxies (GLD, SLV, USO, UNG, SOYB, CORN, CPER, PALL, PPLT, UUP, QQQ, SPY), 6/22 close vs 6/18 prior trading day, verified against the 6/22 scaffold; live gold cross-check via Crypto.com (GC Live); Treasury curve via Financial Modeling Prep. Supercycle Score = inverse of the US dollar (UUP 52-wk range; low 26.395 / high 28.45 / close 28.36 = 95.6% of range). CCI computed from 38 complete daily bars/instrument. Built 2026-06-23; data reflects the Monday 2026-06-22 close (no close 6/19 Juneteenth).

Educational publication of supercycletrader.com, not individualized investment advice.