| SUPERCYCLE TRADER |
| The Daily Dashboard |
| Tuesday, November 10, 2026 · Markets as of 7:15 AM ET |
The Dollar's Green Thread Lasts One Day. Nine Markets Turn Green Behind It. |
| Gold, silver and the Nasdaq got their threads back, crude broke lower, and the Supercycle Score climbed off Plaid to 6. CPI hits at 8:30. |
| By Brad Hoppmann, Editor · 5 min read |
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Supercycle Score 6/100 Strong Headwind · up 6 | Dollar Index 101.65 ▲ 0.10% |
Gold $4,084.20 ▼ 0.74% | Silver $52.43 ▼ 0.51% |
| Trend breadth: ● 9 rising ● 1 mixed ● 2 falling | |
THE BRIEF
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THE SCOREBOARD Twelve markets, one dollar | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| How to read it: Posture (0-100) is the 20-day CCI scaled to a bar. The dot under each market is its Golden Thread signal: Rising = CCI above yesterday and above its 14-day average; Falling = below both; Mixed = anything in between. Prices and Today are front-month futures as of 7:15 AM ET, vs. the prior settle. Posture and the signal are computed on completed daily closes through Monday, Nov. 9 (ETF proxies; Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 index), so they update once a day. |
SUPERCYCLE SCORE 6 / 100 Strong Headwind | The Score is the inverse of the dollar. UUP closed at $28.97 on 11/9, 94.0% of its 52-week closing range ($26.47 low on 1/27, $29.13 high on 10/12 and again on 11/6). The dollar stepped off its high, but it is still a stretched headwind for everything priced in it. |
FROM THE TERMINAL
Gold got its green thread back in one day. Here's the chart.
Gold slipped to mixed on Friday and turned green again on Monday's close, with its CCI jumping from -10 to +66. The Golden Terminal has the full CCI history behind that call for every market on this board, plus the sector rotation map. It's free: one email confirmation, no card.
THE LEAD
One Day of Green for the Dollar. Then Nine for Everything Else.
Friday's jobs report turned the dollar's thread green. It lasted one session. On Monday the dollar slipped 0.55%. Its CCI fell from 119 to minus 3, which put it below its own 14-day average. That is a red thread. The Supercycle Score climbed off the floor, from 0 to 6.
Underneath it, the board lit up. Nine of twelve markets closed with green threads. Gold and silver got theirs back after a single day of mixed. Gold rose 1.9%, and its CCI jumped from minus 10 to plus 66. Silver rose 2.7%. Platinum, palladium and copper joined them. Nat gas ran almost 8%. Even the Nasdaq turned green, up 2.7%.
Jim Rogers always says to go look at the thing itself. So look at it. One soft day for the dollar, and the whole metals complex stood up at once. That is what a dollar-driven board looks like. The metals aren't telling separate stories. They're telling one story about the currency they're priced in.
Now the discipline part. Richard Dennis built the Turtle rules around one question: did the signal hold? A one-day green after a one-day red is a coin that keeps landing on its edge. This morning gold is giving back 0.7% in futures, ahead of a CPI report at 8:30. A hot number could hand the dollar its green thread back by lunch. Treat these nine greens as real. Size them modestly. Let today's close test them.
The one name that broke clean was crude. USO fell 3.9%, and its thread went red at a posture of 9, the weakest reading on the board. WTI futures are down another 1.5% this morning, at $85.12. Oil's trend points down until a close says otherwise.
MACRO
Macro Backdrop and the Dollar Event
The 2-year Treasury yield rose to 4.56% on Monday, up from 4.51%, even as the dollar fell. The 10-year held near 4.88%, so the gap between them narrowed to 32 basis points from 35. Short rates rising on a soft-dollar day is worth noting. The bond market is not relaxing about inflation.
That is why 8:30 matters. October CPI is expected to rise 0.3% for the month, down from 0.6% in September. From a year ago, it is expected at 3.9%, up from 3.7%. Core CPI is expected at 0.2% for the month and 2.8% for the year, up from 2.6%. A hot print would likely firm the dollar and test every green on this board. A soft one gives the metals room to run.
The rest of the week: the USDA's WASDE crop report lands today, which matters for corn and soybeans. Veterans Day is Wednesday. Jobless claims come Thursday, expected at 195,000. PPI comes Friday, expected up 0.4% after September's 1.3% jump.
POSITIONING
The Smart-Money and Event Tell
The latest CFTC report, with positions as of November 3, still shows speculators trimming gold. Their net long fell to about 179,500 contracts from 186,500. That is the seventh straight weekly cut. Copper longs dropped to 37,700 from 48,300. Corn longs shrank by about a third, to 137,600 from 201,300.
Here is the tell. Gold's thread turned green again on Monday with the crowd still heading for the exit. When the price climbs while speculators keep selling, each week's selling does a little less damage. The next report comes out Friday. It will cover the week of the jobs report, and it will show whether the crowd finally stopped selling.
FROM THE PORCH
The Taintsville Take
The Brevard Zoo is running a Thanksgiving program on November 24 that might be the most honest holiday event in the county. They take visitors behind the scenes into the Commissary. That's the kitchen where the keepers fix the animals' meals. The listing makes a point of saying it plainly: no mashed potatoes, no stuffing.
I love that. Everybody else in Brevard is about to plan a feast. Back in that kitchen, the menu is whatever each animal needs, measured out, same as any other Tuesday. Nobody back there gets seconds because it's a holiday.
Anybody who grew up on the Space Coast knows the Thanksgiving table is the one meal with no plan. Two kinds of pie, three kinds of potatoes, and a cousin who brought rolls nobody asked for. The keepers' kitchen is the opposite. It runs on the diet, not the occasion.
Monday was a feast. Nine green threads, the Nasdaq up 2.7%, nat gas up almost 8%. But the board doesn't eat that way. It grades every market on the same diet, every day: better than yesterday, and better than its own two-week average. Nine markets cleared it on Monday. The dollar didn't.
And the grocery bill is the one thing no kitchen can keep off the menu. That is what 8:30 measures this morning. A dollar that loses a little every year shows up at the checkout line long before anybody writes a headline about it.
Coke-TV will run Monday as stocks ripping back from last week's rout. Pepsi-TV will run it as oil sliding again. Neither one mentions a kitchen in Melbourne where the keepers already know what everybody is eating on Thanksgiving, and it isn't stuffing.
A feast tells you what day it is. A diet tells you what's working. Nine markets cleared the diet on Monday. The dollar finally didn't.
Nine greens, two reds, and the dollar's thread back in the red. Eat what the board serves, skip the second helping, and let CPI have its say at 8:30. - Brad
ALSO WORTH READING
When stocks bounce 2.7% in a day, where does the money land?
The Sector Cycle Radar tracks which stock sectors are catching the money this cycle throws off, so a big up day comes with a map instead of a guess. It comes out every trading day, and it's free.
 | Brad Hoppmann Editor, The Daily Dashboard · Supercycle Trader |
Data sources: live front-month futures quotes as of 7:15 AM ET; ETF-proxy daily closes (UUP, GLD, SLV, CPER, USO, UNG, CORN, SOYB, PALL, PPLT) and Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 index closes for Posture, the Golden Thread and the Score; Treasury curve, economic calendar consensus and CFTC Commitment of Traders data, all via Financial Modeling Prep. Brevard Zoo Thanksgiving program per Visit Space Coast's 2026 Holiday Event Preview (11/6). Hero photo: Unsplash.
This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before making any investment decision.