THE LEAD

The Fed did what the calendar said it would do on Wednesday. It held its rate at 4.00%. The dollar took the news with a small step back.

UUP fell 0.21% to $29.06. That is 97.4% of its 52-week closing range, seven cents under its high of $29.13 from October 12. The Supercycle Score is the inverse of the dollar, so it climbed off the floor, from 0 to 3. That is still Ludicrous Headwind. It is just no longer Plaid.

The dollar's own trend cooled too. Its CCI fell from 111 to 91. That is below Tuesday's reading but still above its 14-day average of 55, so the thread goes from green to mixed. It was green for exactly one day. One day does not make a top. It does tell you the push above the average did not carry through the Fed.

Underneath the dollar, the board got broader. Six names are green, five are mixed, and only one is red. On Tuesday it was four greens and three reds.

Gold led the turn. GLD rose 0.3% to $373.51. Its CCI climbed from -113 to -85, above its 14-day average of -98. That is a confirmed green thread. Gold is still low in its own range, with a posture of 24, but the trend is now pointing the right way.

Two of the greens came on red days, and that is the part worth noticing. SLV slipped 0.2% to $49.06, yet its CCI still improved, from -119.5 to -113.6, and stayed above its average. CORN dipped 0.1% to $17.42, and its thread turned green anyway. The board does not grade the day. It grades whether the trend is getting better.

Copper was the cleanest of the bunch. CPER rose 0.7% to $40.33 and its CCI doubled, from 46 to 92. Its posture of 77 ties the dollar for second highest on the board. Crude moved back from red to mixed. USO gained 1.6% to $166.57 and its posture of 82 is the highest on the board. Both stock indexes are green. The Nasdaq Composite inched up to 26,550 and the S&P 500 rose 0.1% to 7,744.

Soybeans are the lone red. SOYB fell 0.8% to $26.07. Palladium and platinum stay mixed near the bottom of the board.

This morning is quieter for the metals. Gold futures are barely changed at $4,047.30, but silver is off 1.1% and platinum is off 2.5%. Palladium is down 1.5% to $998.50, back below $1,000. Crude is off 1.4% to $101.32. Nasdaq 100 futures are down 1.0% ahead of the 8:30 data.

Richard Dennis taught the Turtles to trade the trend in front of them, not the headline. The headline was a Fed hold. The trend in front of us is a dollar still near its high, with six markets quietly turning up under it. We respect the first and we keep score on the second.

MACRO

The Treasury curve at Wednesday's close: 1-month bills at 4.07%, the 2-year at 4.67%, the 10-year at 5.05% and the 30-year at 5.37%. The 20-year sits at 5.41%. The 2-year fell three basis points and the 10-year rose six. That widened the gap between them to 38 basis points from 29 on Tuesday, a sharp steepening in one session.

That shape matters. Short rates eased after the hold, while long rates rose. Long bonds selling off while the Fed stands still often means investors want more pay to hold paper for ten years. That is the debasement worry showing up in the bond market, not just in gold.

The next Dollar Event is this morning at 8:30 AM Eastern. Third-quarter GDP is forecast at 3.2%. September core PCE is forecast at 3.1% from a year ago, and headline PCE at 3.6%. Weekly jobless claims are expected near 199,000. Friday at 8:30 brings the third-quarter Employment Cost Index, forecast at 0.8%. A hot PCE would favor the dollar. A soft one would give the Score room to climb.

POSITIONING

The next Commitment of Traders report lands Friday, October 30, at 3:30 PM Eastern. It covers the week of the Fed. Until then, the report through October 20 still frames the board.

Large speculators held a net long of 15,044 dollar index futures contracts, 65.1% net long, after at least three straight weekly adds. In gold, the same crowd trimmed for a fifth straight week, to a net long of 199,865 contracts, 86.42% net long.

The tell is the split. The crowd leaned long the dollar into the Fed, and the dollar stepped back after it. Meanwhile gold's thread turned green while the speculators were still trimming. When a price trend improves while the crowd is leaving, the crowd is usually late. Friday's report will show whether they started to come back.

FROM THE PORCH

Out at Jetty Park in Port Canaveral, the fishing pier is closed until further notice. Space Coast Daily says it is the high tide and the wind.

Nothing broke. The pilings are right where they were last week. The rails are fine. The pier just got outvoted by the weather.

Anybody who grew up fishing off the Space Coast knows the regulars don't argue with a sign like that. They don't stand at the gate holding a rod and a bucket of shrimp, waiting for somebody to change their mind. They load the truck back up and try again tomorrow.

And I have always liked the phrase. Until further notice. It is the most honest thing a sign can say. It means we will know when we know.

That was Wednesday's dollar. Its trend was green for one day, then the Fed held and the thread cooled to mixed. The price is still near the top of its range. Nothing broke. The trend is just closed until further notice.

Meanwhile six markets walked out onto the board and found it open. Gold turned green. Corn and silver turned or stayed green on days they closed lower, which tells you the trend was improving even when the price wasn't.

Coke-TV runs today as "the Fed holds steady." Pepsi-TV runs it as "Nasdaq futures slide before GDP." Neither one mentions a pier in Port Canaveral where the only thing that changed was the water.

Six greens, one red, and a dollar thread back to mixed. Respect the dollar's range, keep score on the greens under it, and check back after 8:30. - Brad

Data sources: live front-month futures quotes (7:22 AM ET), ETF-proxy and index daily closes for Posture, the Golden Thread and the Score, the Treasury curve, CFTC Commitment of Traders data and the economic calendar (including the Fed decision), all via Financial Modeling Prep. Jetty Park Fishing Pier closure per Space Coast Daily (10/28). Hero photo: Jeff McLain / Unsplash.

This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before making any investment decision.