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The Daily Dashboard

CPI Cools to 3.4%, But the Dollar Still Can't Pick a Direction

Core Inflation Falls to 2.5% as the Board Sits at Zero Green and the Score Holds at 21

Wednesday, August 12, 2026

TRADER'S BRIEF

  • July CPI landed at 3.4% year-over-year, down from June's 3.5% and exactly in line with consensus estimates; core CPI (ex food and energy) fell to 2.5% from 2.6%, also matching estimates. The report posted at 8:30am ET, after Tuesday's close and this morning's data pull.

  • Both readings moved the same direction: cooling, not accelerating, and landing precisely where economists expected. No surprise beat, no surprise miss, but a real data point ahead of the Fed's September 15-16 meeting.

  • The dollar (UUP) closed unchanged at 28.14 for a second straight session on Tuesday, before this morning's report; the Supercycle Score held flat at 21/100 ("Strong Headwind"). Whether cooler inflation moves either number is Wednesday's open question.

  • Not a single one of the board's twelve names confirmed GREEN on Tuesday: the first true shutout since this letter started tracking the board, a day after only natural gas managed it.

  • Corn (CORN, -0.40%) and soybeans (SOYB, -0.98%) both rolled into RED, confirming a fresh trend rollover across the grains complex.

With Brad Hoppmann

ALSO FROM GOLDEN CYCLES RESEARCH

Sector Cycle Radar: the free daily read on which S&P sectors are turning

Sector rotation is the equities-side mirror of the dollar-debasement trade this letter tracks in commodities: same cycle, different asset class.

That's the free preview. Below: the full Scoreboard, the Supercycle Score, and today's read.

Educational publication. Not investment advice.

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