THE LEAD

Monday's board went quiet.

Not one of the twelve markets confirmed a rising trend at the close. Nine are mixed. Three are falling. Friday we had two greens, crude and soybeans. Both gave them back.

Crude cooled first. USO fell 1.9% to $166.23 after Friday's big run. Its CCI slid from 175 to 129. That is still well above its 14-day average of 96, and its posture is 85, the strongest on the board. But the reading fell, so the thread drops from green to mixed. That is a pause, not a break. Soybeans were the real loss. SOYB fell 1.2% to $26.46. Its CCI dropped from -95 to -151, below both Friday and its average. Soybeans turn red.

Corn and platinum are red too. CORN slipped 0.3% to $17.63 and its thread went from mixed to red. PPLT fell 1.6% to $13.83, and its posture sits at 8.

Now the other side. Gold finally got up off the floor. GLD rose 0.3% to $367.82. Its CCI climbed from -267 to -195. It is still far below its 14-day average of -99, so this is not a new uptrend. But it moves gold's thread from red to mixed. Silver, palladium and nat gas did the same thing: less bad, not yet good.

Stocks bounced. The S&P 500 rose 0.7% to 7,677. The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.8% to 26,169, and the Dow added 146 points, per TheStreet. The lift came after Anthropic filed to list on the Nasdaq. The S&P's thread moves from red to mixed.

And the dollar did what it has been doing. UUP rose 0.17% to $29.01, 95.5% of its 52-week closing range. Because the Supercycle Score is the inverse of the dollar, the Score slipped from 6 to 5, back into Ludicrous Headwind. One more cent on UUP takes it to 4. Twelve more cents and the Score goes to Plaid. The dollar's own CCI rose from 0 to 38, but it is still under its 14-day average of 57. So its thread stays mixed.

This morning the metals are leaking again. Palladium futures are down 3.6% and platinum 2.2%, with silver off 1.5%. Copper is the exception, up 1.2% to $6.62.

Richard Dennis taught the Turtles to sit on their hands when the market won't give a signal. Nine mixed readings is the market saying "not yet." We don't force a trade into that. We wait for the restart.

MACRO

The Treasury curve at Monday's close: 1-month bills at 4.11%, the 2-year at 4.68%, the 10-year at 5.00% and the 30-year at 5.31%. The 20-year sits a bit higher at 5.35%. The 2-year to 10-year gap is 32 basis points. The long end held at 5% even as stocks rallied.

This is the Dollar Event. The Fed's decision lands tomorrow, Wednesday, October 28, at 2:00 PM Eastern, with Chair Warsh's press conference at 2:30. The calendar consensus is a hold (medium confidence). Thursday at 8:30 AM brings third-quarter GDP, forecast at 3.2%, and September core PCE, forecast at 3.1% from a year ago. Today brings durable goods orders at 8:30 and consumer confidence at 10:00.

The setup is simple. A Fed that holds with oil near $100 is a Fed letting inflation run, and that would be soft for the dollar. A Fed that leans hard against $100 oil would push the dollar to a fresh high, and the Score would hit zero. With the dollar twelve cents from its high, Wednesday decides which way the Score breaks.

POSITIONING

There is no new Commitment of Traders report until Friday, October 30, at 3:30 PM Eastern. That report will cover the Fed week. The last one, through October 20, still frames the board.

Large speculators held a net long of 15,044 dollar index futures contracts, 65.1% net long, after at least three straight weekly adds. In gold, the same crowd trimmed for a fifth straight week, to a net long of 199,865 contracts, 86.42% net long.

The tell is the timing. The crowd has been leaning into the dollar right up to a Fed meeting, with the Score near the floor. Crowded trades into an event tend to move the most when the event surprises. If Warsh sounds softer than expected, that dollar long has to unwind, and gold's mixed thread is the first place it would show.

FROM THE PORCH

Space Coast Daily ran a history video this week on the old Eau Gallie Speedway. It sat on 20 acres on the west side of Wickham Road. It opened in 1957 as The Spinning Wheel Speedway. Over the years it was also Brevard Speedway, Eau Gallie Speedway and Melbourne Speedway. The final checkered flag fell in 1977. The place is abandoned now.

Four names in twenty years, and it never once went anywhere. That's not a knock. A short track is the one place in Brevard County where going in circles is the whole point.

Anybody who grew up around Saturday night racing knows the most important flag isn't the green or the checkered. It's the yellow. Somebody spins, the yellow comes out, and the pace car rolls onto the track. Everybody bunches up behind it. Nobody passes. Nobody gains a spot and nobody loses one. The race is not over. It's just waiting.

That was Monday's board. Nine yellows and zero greens. Crude was leading and got bunched up with everybody else. Gold had been running last and closed the gap. Nobody passed anybody for real. And the pace car this week is the Fed. It pulls off at 2:00 Wednesday.

Coke-TV runs Monday as "the Anthropic IPO lifts the Nasdaq." Pepsi-TV runs it as "oil cools ahead of the Fed." Neither one mentions that every car on the track was under caution the whole time.

No greens, three reds, nine yellows, and a dollar twelve cents from Plaid. Hold your line under caution, don't try to pass the pace car, and watch the restart Wednesday at 2:00. - Brad

Data sources: live front-month futures quotes (about 7:00 to 7:14 AM ET), ETF-proxy and index daily closes for Posture, the Golden Thread and the Score, the Treasury curve, CFTC Commitment of Traders data and the economic calendar, all via Financial Modeling Prep. Market color: Monday index closes, the Dow and the Anthropic IPO filing per TheStreet (Oct. 26). Eau Gallie Speedway history per Space Coast Daily (10/27). Hero photo: Zack Otto / Unsplash.

This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before making any investment decision.